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Weekly update 51

posted Mar 20, 2015, 7:52 AM by Austin Milt   [ updated Mar 20, 2015, 7:52 AM ]
Another week, another figure. I've been looking at how to both analyze and visualize multiple kinds of error in estimating environmental impacts in the absence of regulation (big part of my last chapter). I still dont have a good way to visualize, but I do have this extremely messy figure!
In each panel are three types of solutions to an optimization: triangles are a cap-only (sites must meet threshold level of impact or not develop), x's are "optimal allocation" (regulator is both developer and environmental steward and chooses which sites develop and which layout to develop), and circles are cap and trade (sites get a cap and can sell excess or buy to make up deficit). The black symbols are when the regulator knows exactly how much a site will impact in the absence of regulation. The colored symbols show various kinds of error about that estimation. In the top-left is what happens when error is random (i.e. there is spread in the estimation). In the top-right is when the regulator systematically overestimates impacts. Bottom-left is when the regulator systematically underestimates impacts. And bottom-right is when there is both random and systematic error in the estimates. 

There is a whole bunch of cool conclusions I can already draw from these figures, but you'll have to ask or wait for a manuscript to find out.
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